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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP