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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model