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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 74

Washington Commanders 9 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 42 for 19 yards (52-T.Garvin). WAS-47-Q.Dunbar was injured during the play. He is Out. 47- Dunbar is being evaluated for a concussion

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP