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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 20 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 22 for 5 yards (25-L.Young).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model