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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 6

Carolina Panthers 20 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP