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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 18

Washington Commanders 9 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder to CAR 10 for 8 yards (33-T.Boston).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model