4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 8

Washington Commanders 9 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model