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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 23 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to WAS 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP