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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 23 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model