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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 23 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model