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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.82 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model