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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to BUF 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate to BUF 22 for 3 yards (39-E.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model