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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-M.Alford pushed ob at CLE 32 for 12 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model