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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 18 for 8 yards (53-J.Schobert). Return credited to BUF 17 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-28-R.Darby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model