Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis. Punt credited to BUF 38 (spot of foul). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model