Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 13 – Buffalo Bills 30

(11:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BUF 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.61 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model