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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 2-D.Carpenter 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP