Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 13 – Buffalo Bills 33

(6:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to BUF 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at CLE 30 for 29 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model