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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model