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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at CHI 28 for -6 yards (92-P.McPhee).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.48 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model