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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 8

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP