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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.16 EP