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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 24 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model