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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model