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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Hopkins (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model