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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Houston Texans 5

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP