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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 3-B.Nortman punts 64 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 33 for 9 yards (30-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model