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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 70

Houston Texans 8 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to JAX 10 for -1 yards (33-A.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model