Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 8

(3:36) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model