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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 11

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 32 for 25 yards (30-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.99 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP