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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 10

Houston Texans 11 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP