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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 51

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model