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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead to ARI 30 for 5 yards (36-D.Swearinger).

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.48 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model