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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 6-M.Wile punts 36 yards to NO 38, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-22-T.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model