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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 24 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model