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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model