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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP