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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model