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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to LAC 20, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP