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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to LAC 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 89-I.Burse to LAC 18 for 11 yards (56-D.Bates). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model