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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP