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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP