4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model