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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 16 for 5 yards (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model