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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model