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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DAL 36, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model