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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model