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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model