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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to TB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model