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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model